It’s that time of the year again kids.. For some reason, I didn’t do this last year.  Here we go, my 10 predictions for technology in 2010.

1. Netbooks – huge.

You thought 2009 was the year of the netbook?  You ain’t seen nothing yet, kid. 2010 will bring a whole new crop of them, this time with the Nvidia ION chipset, allowing you to watch HD content on your little netbook.  We’ve already started seeing better screen resolutions like 1366×768 (instead of the older 1024×600), giving you greater than 720p on the display.  This will continue, though I don’t think you’ll see 10″ screens grow much more in resolution.  Apple’s rumored to release something early in 2010, possibly called iSlate, which will be a hybrid netbook/tablet device.

2. Home Virtualization

In 2009, with VMware ESXi being free, geeks started doing bare-metal virtualization more and more, dumping host-os solutions like VMware Server in favor of better performance.  This trend will accelerate in 2010, and we’ll see someone introduce a virtualization product targeted at the so-called “pro-sumer”.  It will be interesting to see if it’s specifically marketed as such.  What’s it for?  Aggregation of lots of different home network services onto a single hardware platform.  Maybe it’s all a dream for us geeks, but I think something will pop in 2010.  Remember, everyone said the same thing about NAS, and now those are everywhere too.

3. Gigabit Ethernet for everyone

People will stop buying routers and switches for the home that are only 10/100 devices.  The driving forces?  NAS and 802.11n.  As people replace old computers with new, they come with shiny stuff like 802.11n wifi cards instead of crusty old 802.11g.  This means a jump from 54 Mbps to 300 Mbps.  Obviously, 300 Mbps > 100 Mbps, and nobody wants to have access to their data on the NAS to be that slow.

4. Android Cleans House

I admit it.  I like Google.  I love the idea of a common-source OS that’s open for mobile devices.  I’ve got serious technolust for something running Android right now.  I’m doing my best to be patient though.  I want to see the latest batch of devices, hopefully with 1 Ghz Snapdragon processors and Android 2.1 first.  After that, if it’s got AT&T 3G bands and wifi, I’m in.  I predict that people will finally start falling out of iLove with their iPhones, though certainly not in droves, and move to a more capable platform that does “more.”

5. Another new iPhone

As it’s older siblings before it, it will be buzzword compliant, but probably only with stuff that isn’t cutting edge.  You’ll get your 5MP camera (that I had on a phone 2 years ago), you’ll get HSPA – but won’t be able to use it.  What’s the big prediction here?  New headphones that use Bluetooth, sort of like the ones that Nokia sells.  They’ll be optional, and work with the 3GS, but I’d bet they won’t work with the 3G and certainly not the original iPhone.  Nothing earth shattering, but they’ll be Apple-branded, and tightly integrated with the device, so you’ll see stuff like song titles and caller id info on an OLED display, possibly color, using buddy icons from your address book.

6. Another iPod Shuffle down-size

Because they’re not small enough, right?  This time, it will be a single piece of hardware, integrated into the headphones.  It will also see a price cut to $49 for a 4GB model.  Just an incremental change in the end.

7. More gigantic technological misnomers

Like LED TVs.  I had a discussion with someone not long ago who insisted that these were not LCD TVs, and were in fact LED TVs.  He just couldn’t get past the idea that the display technology is largely the same, possibly some incremental changes, but the real change is in the backlight.  LCD TVs that were purchased a couple of years ago were certainly backlit using fluorescent bulbs.  These “LED” TVs use LED bulbs for the backlight.  That’s the limit of the changes.  These are not self-illuminating screens like OLED or AMOLED.  Now an AMOLED screen – that would be HUGE.  What will the misnomer be about?  Who knows?  It’s coming though.

8. A “major” newspaper will fail to make it to 2011

We’ve been talking for years about the impending death of the newspaper, in favor of Internet-based news channels.  I think back to our experience with the local paper earlier this year.  We subscribed purely for the reason of getting coupons.  We subscribed to the weekend package (so Friday – Sunday).  Total cost was about $10 a month.  The problem?  We only netted about $5-6 worth of coupons per month.  After 2 months, we canceled the subscription.  Ad revenues are already in the toilet for newspapers, and will only continue to decline.  Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee, Mr. Newspaper Man.

9. Compressed hydrogen will start moving.

Sure, Honda’s got their prototype Accord going in California.  But, we’re going to start seeing a real compressed hydrogen delivery network being built.  Hydrogen is arguably one of the most abundantly available elements on Earth.  The vehicles emit water vapor as their exhaust.  Not so bad, eh?  Please, don’t confuse me with a climate change fruit loop.  I don’t subscribe to cooking the books in order to support my points, as is the case in the climate change circle these days.  But surely a car that emits water vapor can only be a good thing, when compared to a gas or diesel vehicle.

10. A usable water-based fuel cell

This thing is the big dream.  You fill it up with water, and the hydrogen is used to power the device.  It’s completely sustainable, and free to “recharge.”

Last evening, several of us met at the home of friends to watch the big game.  We all agreed to go there, as they had the largest TV (57″ vs our 46″, or 40″ at the other couple’s house)..  Seemed like a great idea at the time.  Then Comcast intervened.

While all of their other HD chanels worked great, the local NBC and ABC HD versions were just showing a black screen without audio.  The SD channel versions worked fine, but it sort of negates the point of the big HDTV, right?  So, our hosts called up Comcast to see what was up.  After a few minutes, the guy on the phone determined that nothing was wrong, and they’d need to send someone out.  Of course, since we were 10 minutes from kickoff, it wasn’t going to help for the game.

While on the phone with Comcast, our friend mentioned that they were considering switching to FiOS TV and Internet, and this was Comcast’s opportunity to convince her to stick with them by fixing this, or providing some sort of nominal credit, as compensation for degraded service.  They told her there was nothing they could do to help her, have a nice day, buh bye.

She hung up and said, “Well, I was on the fence before, now we’re definitely going with FiOS.”  We’ve had FiOS Internet for about 2.5 years now, and FiOS TV for a bit more than 6 months now, and we’re thrilled with the quality of both services.  Much better than Comcast, who we typically referred to around the house as “Crapcast.”

February 17, 2009 is quickly approaching, and you’re still confused about the DTV Transition, right?  You’re not alone.  There are acronyms flying around like crazy, people don’t understand them, there’s a lot of bad information coming from a variety of bad sources even.  Relax, here’s all you need to know.

First, listen up. The DTV Transition only applies to you if you use an antenna to get your TV signal. Cable and satellite subscribers will not be impacted by the DTV Transition, even if your cable operator is suggesting you will be impacted.  This post is focused on antenna users, not cable or satellite users.

Next, let’s talk about what DTV is and is not.  DTV stands for Digital Television.  You will also hear terms like ATSC and HDTV used to describe the DTV Transition.  To gain a better understanding, let’s rewind a bit and look at analog TV.  In the US, analog TV transmissions are governed by what’s called the NTSC standard.  This standard defines a specific method for transmitting a TV signal.  A tuner, or device that converts the TV signals into a picture on your screen, with the help of an antenna, pulls in TV signals from the air and does its job.  DTV uses a newer transmission standard, referred to as ATSC.  This means, in order to get a picture on your TV after February 17, 2009, you will need a digital, or ATSC tuner, either inside your TV, or as an add-on box, that looks something like a cable box.

Instantly, lots of questions jump to mind…

What does DTV give me over the old analog standard?

First and foremost is picture quality.  Digital transmissions are cleaner, thus better picture quality on your screen.  Also, because DTV transmissions take up less space in the airwaves than their analog counterparts, many stations broadcast what are called “sub-channels,” with additional content.  For example, Philly’s NBC affiliate, Channel 10, broadcasts two channels.  Channel 10.1 is the same old Channel 10 you’ve seen for years.  The extra channel, 10.2 is an all-weather channel that only broadcasts local weather, full-time.  Other stations handle this differently, sometimes running more shows, others not taking advantage of sub-channels at all.

Do I have a digital tuner already?

Unfortunately, there’s no quick & easy answer to this question.  The best advice I can give you is to check your TV’s manual.  If you don’t have that handy, look at the back of the TV, get the model number and check the manufacturer’s website.  If you bought your TV in the past couple of years, you may already have a digital tuner inside!

Ok, I don’t have a digital tuner, do I need a new TV?

Absolutely not.  If your TV lacks a digital tuner, you can get an inexpensive digital converter box.  These are available at your local electronics retailer, and cost anywhere between $40 and $75.  To help defray the costs, Uncle Sam’s willing to kick in 2 $40 coupons per household.  Head over to their website to apply for your coupons.

Do I need to subscribe to cable or satellite?

Again, absolutely not.  There is a lot of clever messaging by cable and satellite operators referencing the DTV Transition out there.  Let’s be perfectly clear – there is NOTHING you need to do if you’re a cable or satellite subscriber.

Do I need a new antenna?

Again, no.  In the store, you’ll see lots of antennas marketed as DTV or HDTV antennas.  DTV transmissions are in the same frequency range as existing analog TV signals, so even those crusty old rabbit ears your grandfather bought at Radio Shack in 1974 will still work fine.

So, how does HDTV fit into all of this?

All HD programming that comes in OTA (over the air), that is, via antenna, is by definition, digital already.  In other words, all HDTV content is DTV.  However, not all DTV programming is in HD.  Think of DTV as a bigger circle with HDTV as a smaller circle completely inside the DTV circle.  A common misconception is that by adding a digital tuner to your existing older non-HDTV, you’ll somehow transform it into an HDTV set.  This is again, not true.

Still not sure what you need to do?  Ok, I cooked up a little flow chart to help you figure out what to do (click it to enlarge):

Your Decision Process